Solar PV and battery costs are dropping faster than a rock
PV Magazine (Nov 11, 2025) – Accurate technology cost assumptions are a cornerstone of effective energy transition planning. While we have been blessed with rapid cost declines in renewable energy technologies, most energy models and policy analyses continue to rely on outdated assumptions.
A new study by researchers from the University of Canterbury, LUT University, the German Aerospace Center (DLR), and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), “Are we too pessimistic? Cost projections for solar photovoltaics, wind power, and batteries are over-estimating actual costs globally”, published in Applied Energy, systematically reviewed 40 studies and 150 long-term scenarios for renewable energy technologies. It compared their projected costs (all inflation-adjusted to 2023 USD) with real-world market data and found a consistent trend: cost projections are too pessimistic.
The issue lies less with technology performance and more with the assumptions underpinning the models. Many cost projections still rely on outdated assumptions and inconsistent regional factors, such as learning rates and soft costs, which can misrepresent the true potential for CAPEX reduction.
